GOP flips House, Dems keep Senate

Last night was truly a big night for Republicans. They are certain to take at least 60 seats in the House and six in the Senate (Colorado and Washington are still being counted, but look unlikely to be GOP pick-ups). Most of the bigger victories for the GOP in the House came from the East Coast, Midwest and the South.

Over in the Senate, Republicans failed to take advantage of vulnerable incumbents.  Christine O’Donnell’s candidacy was a disaster from the start and Sharron Angle was a terrible candidate that couldn’t defeat an equally terrible candidate in Sen. Harry Reid.

Ken Buck was unable to take down Sen. Michael Bennet (though the GOP in that state seems to have some serious problems), who was nearly picked off in the Democratic primary. And Joe Miller appears likely to lose to Lisa Murkowski, who ran an effective write-in campaign.

Many are saying that the tea party movement was sucessful last night. While that’s true in some cases (such as Rand Paul and Pat Toomey), it’s not in others. The results for tea party candidates is mixed, at least on the Senate side.

We’ll have a more comprehensive write-up a bit later.

Election Night Live-Blog

Join United Liberty as we live-blog election returns from across the country this evening. We’ll kickoff around 6:45pm and continue until at least midnight.

CO Senate: Buck holds small lead over Bennet

Ken Buck, the GOP nominee for United States Senate in Colorado and tea party candidate, is leading Sen. Michael Bennet by four points, according to a new poll from Rasmussen:

  • Buck: 48%
  • Bennet: 44%
  • Other: 3%
  • Not sure: 6%

This seat is still considerd a toss-up, though Buck is finally starting to increase his small lead. Buck lead by as many as eight points in late September.

The survey indicates that 86% of voters are certain of their vote. However, both candidates are underwater in their favorability rating. Buck is 46/50 and Bennet is 44/51. Buck does hold the lead among independents with 55% to 32%.

Colorado voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance, 47/52, and 54% support repeal of ObamaCare.

Podcast: Discussing the 2010 mid-terms

Last night, Brett Bittner, Stephen Gordon, Mike Hassinger, Shana Kluck, Doug Mataconis and myself all sat in for a podcast discussing the mid-term election, which is just five days away.

We touch briefly on some House races, but we talked more in-depth about some of the competitive Senate seats, including Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. We also got sidetracked on the Delaware race and had a lively discussion about the tea party movement when it comes to being a political movement. We also made some predictions on what to expect on election day.

You can listen to it here (about one hour in length).

Latest polling from The Hill shows more pick-ups for GOP

The last round of polling from The Hill before election day has somewhat better results for Democrats that previous polling, however, it still looks bad for them on election day:

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.

The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).

Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play.

According to The Hll, Republicans are ahead in 31 out of the 40 districts polled that are currently held by Democrats. They also note that they didn’t even poll 15 districts because Republicans were already poised to win.

Here is a look at the latest polling from The Hill.


  • Scott Tipton (R): 47%
  • Rep. John Salazar (D): 43%
  • Undecided: 8%


A look at ads in Senate races

Below is a collection of recent ads running in competitive United States Senate races around the country. Some are positive ads, some are attack ads, but they give you an idea of what is going on in this states.

Ken Buck discusses, in one of the better ads I’ve seen this year, how Washington has heard cries for less government, but they have gone ignored:

Pat Toomey, who seems to be closing out his race well, responds to baseless attacks against him hits Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) for backing President Barack Obama’s agenda:

DSCC cancels ad buys in Missouri

With polls showing no real movement between Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Robin Carnahan in the United States Senate race in Missouri, the DSCC is pulling out of the state and focusing elsewhere:

The DSCC is moving TV ad money out of Missouri, a sign that the Senate race may be moving beyond Democrats’ grasp.

Four Republican sources who monitor media buying and three Missouri TV stations have confirmed to Hotline On Call that the DSCC has canceled reservations from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25. The DSCC still has reservations in Missouri for the last week before Election Day.

“Yes, the weeks of Oct. 12 and Oct. 19 have been canceled for the DSCC in our station,” Sean Kellerman of WDAF, the Kansas City, MO, FOX affiliate, said.

“They have requested cancellations,” said Amy Warren of KCTV, Kansas City’s CBS affiliate.

This was one of the few Republican held seats that Democrats thought they had a shot at this year, but as they are forced to defend seats in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia, they have to start weighing their priorities.

Voters in three states to vote on ObamaCare referendums

Back in August, 71% of Missouri primary voters rejected ObamaCare by casting ballots in favor of Proposition C. In November, voters in three states, Arizona, Colorado and Oklahoma, will let their thoughts be known on the new health care “reform” law:

The three initiatives prohibit the government from forcing individuals to buy health care insurance - a “mandate” that critics say violates the U.S. Constitution - and would allow patients and employers to pay providers directly without penalty. The idea is to protect state residents from “the ongoing takeover of health care by government,” backers of the Colorado campaign say.
Jon Caldara, who is spearheading the Amendment 63 campaign in Colorado, said opponents are forgetting about “a pesky little thing called the 10th Amendment,” which reserves to the states “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution.”

“There have been numerous examples to suggest that there are times when state law supplants federal law,” said Mr. Caldara, president of the free-market Independence Institute in Golden. “If federal law always supplanted state law, then we wouldn’t have 20 state attorneys general suing to overturn the federal law.”

That joint lawsuit, challenging the constitutionality of the health care law primarily over the insurance-buying mandate, is proceeding in the courts even as the political fight continues.

CO Senate: Buck holds lead over Bennet

The latest poll out of Colorado, conducted by Rasmussen, shows Ken Buck (R), a tea party candidate, leading Sen. Michael Bennet by 8 points and breaking 50%. Though as the DSCC pulls out of other states, such as Pennsylvania, they will be pouring more money into Colorado, which is viewed as a more winnable race.

  • Buck: 51%
  • Bennet: 43%
  • Other: 2%
  • Not sure: 4%

Buck holds a 54% to 35% lead among independent voters and is viewed favorably by 50% of voters. Forty-seven percent view him unfavorably. Bennet is viewed favorably by 44%, but he is viewed unfavorably by 53%.

According to the poll, 74% of Colorado voters are certain of their vote. Only 26% are still uncertain or have no preference. Fifty-eight percent believe that the current policies of the federal government have the nation on the wrong track. Fifty-five percent disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance.

Club for Growth launches ad campaigns in five states

Our friends at the Club for Growth have launched a $1.5 million ad buy across five states targeting the liberal records of Michael Bennet (D-CO), Charlie Crist (I-FL), Harry Reid (D-NV), Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Russ Feingold (D-WI):

“Pat Toomey, Marco Rubio, Ron Johnson, Ken Buck, and Sharron Angle belong in the Senate, and Club for Growth Action is going to do everything it can to get them there,” said Club President Chris Chocola.  “This five-state, $1.5 million buy adds to the first wave in a campaign that we expect to be the most successful economic freedom has had in decades.”

You can view the ads below.



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